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Introduction
DEFRA and the Environment Agency have recognised that to improve
the performance of flood defences it is necessary to consider systems
of defences rather then merely considering single defences in isolation.
If a town is protected by several different defences then it is
necessary to consider how this flood defence system functions as
a whole in order to assess and manage the flood risk to the inhabitants
and assets in the town. At present there is little useful guidance
on assessing risk to large floodplain areas which depend on numerous,
perhaps extensive and diverse, systems of defences such as embankments,
walls, and moveable structures. With moves towards more integrated
flood management, it is essential that risk managers have recourse
to sound and practical tools and techniques for assessing the performance
of whole systems in order to develop balanced, integrated risk management
strategies. The aim of RASP is therefore to develop and demonstrate
methods for dealing with systems of flood defences.
A tiered methodology
In any decision-making situation it is important to undertake an
appropriate level of analysis, which is justified by the importance
of the decision and its sensitivity to uncertainty. The appropriate
level of analysis will be guided by the cost and time associated
with collecting and analysing data about the flooding problem and
the risks associated with any proposed flood management option.
The notion of appropriate analysis is fundamental to RASP and is
reflected in the tiered methodology that is proposed.
- The High Level Method will be based on nationally available
datasets on flood defences, flood plains and land use. It will
provide a methodology for updating national estimates of flood
risk (for example to support the updating of the National Appraisal
of Assets at Risk from flooding published by MAFF in 2000). Reliable
national estimates of risk will enable changes in flood risk in
England and Wales to be monitored and reviewed.
- The Intermediate Level Method will use measurements or model
estimates of flood water levels, flood defence levels and ground
elevation to generate better estimates of flood risk. It will
be used to inform strategic decisions on flood risk management.
- The Detailed Level Method will use detailed information about
the composition of defences to generate an improved estimate of
their probability of failure by a number of different failure
modes. Simulation methods will be used to estimate risks in a
large number of flooding scenarios.
| Level |
Decisions to inform |
Data sources |
Methodologies |
| High |
National assessment of economic risk, risk to life or environmental
risk.
Prioritisation of expenditure
Regional Planning
Flood warning planning
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Defence type
Condition grades
Standard of service
Indicative flood plain maps
Socio-economic data
Land use mapping |
Generic probabilities of defence failure based on condition
assessment and crest freeboard.
Assumed dependency between defence sections.
Empirical methods to determine likely flood extent.
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| Intermediate |
Above plus:
Flood defence strategy planning
Regulation of development
Maintenance management
Planning of flood warning
|
Above plus:
Defence crest level and other dimensions where available
Joint probability load distributions
Flood plain topography
Detailed socio-economic data |
Probabilities of defence failure from
reliability analysis
Systems reliability analysis using joint loading conditions
Modelling of limited number of inundations scenario |
| Detailed |
Above plus:
Scheme appraisal and optimisation |
Above plus:
All parameters required describing defence strength
Synthetic time series of loading conditions |
Simulation-based reliability analysis
of system
Simulation modelling of inundation |
The RASP methodology will deliver
- an estimate of the flood risk associated with the failure of
any single or combination of flood defences;
- an estimate of the total flood risk for identified impact zones
in the flood plain;
- an indication of the contribution that each defence makes to
the total risk in the floodplain.
These outputs will be compatible with standard
Geographical Information Systems to support simple user visualisation.
RASP will not be delivering new software but it will be inputting
into current software development projects such as the Modelling
Decision Support Framework being developed in the Broad Scale Modelling
Theme.
RASP will also involve demonstration studies
at pilot sites and production of written guidance to enable widespread
application. Through a linked study, the RASP High Level Method
will be applied to all of England and Wales in order to update the
National Appraisal of Assets at Risk.
The RASP project began in January 2002 and will be completed in
Spring 2004.
GIS image from RASP - for now simple one
from Fabio
RASP can be used for
- national monitoring of risk from flooding;
- strategic prioritisation of investment in defence improvements
or other flood management options (e.g. increased storage or diversion);
- targeting flood warning and emergency preparedness;
- highlighting priorities for monitoring and maintenance and justification
of maintenance decisions;
- scheme design and optimisation.
Connections between RASP and other R&D and software
projects, such as the MDSF and the NFCDD
- The Modelling and Decision Support Framework (MDSF) is being
developed to support Catchment Flood Management Plans. MDSF and
RASP are closely related and are being jointly developed. RASP
is focussing on the flood defence systems aspects whilst MDSF
is providing a standard GIS platform for visualisation and decision
support.
- The National Flood and Coastal Defence Database (NFCDD) provides
key information on defence types and conditions to be entered
into RASP. RASP will provide an estimate of the contribution that
each defence makes to flood risk, which will be linked to NFCDD.
- DEFRA/EA funded research on performance and reliability of individual
structures and components will provide information on individual
defence failure mechanisms which will be used in the RASP methodology.
- The National Appraisal of Assets at Risk from flooding will
be updated in 2002 using the RASP High Level Method.
RASP's contribution to achieving DEFRA's High Level
Targets
DEFRA's High Level Target 5A requires that the
Environment Agency reports, on a national basis, on its assessment
of the risk of flooding. The High Level Method in RASP will satisfy
this requirement. RASP will also provide a basis for risk-based
prioritisation of inspection and maintenance of flood defences.
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